Emitting More Creative Destruction

Posted by: Fisher Investments Research Staff on 09/03/2010 14:02:18

For the last decade, the global warming debate has swirled around the world from houses of government to houses of individuals. Carbon dioxide emissions are frequently at the center of discussion. But whatever your point of view on the subject, data released from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) speaks to long-term private sector changes which have already dramatically impacted the emission of CO2.

Embedded in the EIA's 2009 Annual Energy Review is a chart of US GDP growth versus carbon dioxide emissions, and it tells the story well. The chart displays a vastly bigger economy tha...

A Market Supplied Well

Posted by: Fisher Investments Research Staff on 08/19/2010 14:00:40

Oil prices slightly declined on Wednesday after the Energy Information Administration reported total fuel stockpiles increased over 5 million barrels to 1.13 billion barrels (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve). Some analysts were surprised at the increase given the time of year—supplies at this juncture typically decline. The biggest contributors to the increase in total stockpiles were distillates, propane, and other oils (asphalt and road oil, kerosene, and other unfinished oil products). The last category—other oils—accounted for 2.3 million barrels of the increase. Considering this category w...

A New Fad

Posted by: Fisher Investments Research Staff on 08/05/2010 12:27:36

Good regulation makes sense and is necessary to ensure a level playing field and safety. The Energy industry certainly isn’t exempted from this. Lately, regulatory backlashes at Energy producers have been increasing in popularity—with bans and moratoriums being the new fad. There’s the widely discussed Gulf deepwater ban imposed by the Department of the Interior. And now, fears of drilling fluids leaking and contaminating the water supply have led to a proposed New York state shale well drilling moratorium through next May. Clearly, sensible inspection to meet safety standards is a plus, but tightening regulation doesn’t necessarily mean improving regulation. No human means exists to prevent any...

Math Problems

Posted by: Fisher Investments Research Staff on 07/29/2010 16:10:52

Discussions of alternative energy sources are easy to come by these days. The idea sounds nice—finding cleaner sources of energy to provide limitless power for our economy would be quite a boon—if the economics made these sources viable.

 

The problem for alternative energy technology today is widely known—solar and wind power require large areas of land and government subsidies to survive. For interesting new biofuel sources like ethanol and algal oil, the math is stacked equally high against them—if not higher.
 
While creating oil from algae may be about the cleanest source of energy possible, it’s also far from economically viable. With current te...

China’s #1…Or Are They?

Posted by: Fisher Investments Research Staff on 07/23/2010 09:35:02

According to the International Energy Administration, Chinese consumption of all energy sources (nuclear, oil, gas, wind, and solar, etc.) on an oil-adjusted basis surpassed the US in 2009. However, China disagrees. China released a report following the IEA’s announcement stating its energy consumption was approximately 1% below the US. Interestingly, the Chinese didn’t quibble with the IEA’s calculation of US demand or the overall methodology, just the calculation of coal tonnage used. This difference might seem odd, but China and the IEA are frequently at odds. In the end, whether China is slightly above ...

US Gasoline Refinery Capacity Drops for First Time Since 2003

Posted by: Fisher Investments Research Staff on 07/14/2010 13:36:45

According to the Energy Information Administration, US gasoline refinery capacity fell in 2010 for the first time since 2003, principally driven by the closure of two large refineries in Delaware and New Jersey. While the closures were partially mitigated by expansion at a Louisiana refinery, historically refineries have struggled to meet demand. As the report indicates, past capacity utilization at US refineries has averaged 92%, indicating there hasn’t been much spare capacity previously—even including the two recently closed plants. Capacity utilization, currently at 90.5%, has risen from 87.9% a year ago. If not offset by other means, the refinery closures could incrementally press...

Oil Price Volatility Masks Steadily Improving Fundamentals

Posted by: Fisher Investments Research Staff on 06/10/2010 13:29:59

After peaking at almost $87 per barrel in early April, benchmark WTI crude oil prices fell by nearly $20 by late May, before rebounding to nearly $75 per barrel more recently. However, investors should look past the volatility—much of which is unconnected to the supply-demand balance for crude—and instead focus on the steady improvement in oil market fundamentals.

 

Explaining the Volatility
 
The recent crude oil price correction was partially driven by the same factors behind the correction in equity markets: European sovereign debt concerns, fears about Chinese monetary tightening, and uncertainty regarding proposed US financial regulation. These fears drove investors to liquidate ...

Don't Overlook OECD Oil Demand

Posted by: Fisher Investments Research Staff on 05/26/2010 07:06:34

Over the next 20 years, the world is going to need a lot more oil—about 20 million more barrels a day by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. But almost all of that demand growth is expected to be fueled by Emerging Markets. In fact, most forecasters believe developed-country oil consumption will actually decline over the next two decades. Most forecasts for a secular decline in OECD—an organization of developed economies—oil demand assume significant gains in energy efficiency, based on lessons learned from the energy crises of the 1970s. Indeed, following OPEC oil embargos and the subsequent spike in oil prices, oil intensity—the amount of oil consumed per unit of real GDP—plummeted, falling by more 30% in the United States in less than f...

The Question of Chinese Oil Demand

Posted by: Fisher Investments Research Staff on 05/14/2010 16:43:19

This week, China reported monthly net crude imports topped 5 million barrels per day (mb/d) for the first time ever in April, rising 1.25 mb/d (33%) year-over-year. And based on the official refinery throughput statistics, apparent demand in the first three months of 2010 is up 1.30 mb/d (19%) over 2009.


The spectacular rate of apparent demand growth ostensibly suggests estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the US Department of Energy (DOE) and OPEC may be too conservative–on average, the three organizations expect Chinese oil consumption to increase by just 0.5 million barrels per day in 2010, representing year-over-year growth of 6%—a significant slowdown from the current trajectory. In fact, even if Chinese demand remained at first quart...

America's Natural Gas Boom

Posted by: Fisher Investments Research Staff on 05/10/2010

For many years, US natural gas production declined steadily as the country’s conventional resources were depleted. However, several years ago, producers developed hydraulic fracturing and lateral drilling technology, which enabled them to cost-effectively access unconventional resources—such as natural gas shale—which previously were too technically challenging to economically extract. Gas production from resources such as the Barnett, Haynesville, Fayetteville, and Marcellus Shales surged, and supplies rose much more rapidly than consumption, putting significant downward pressure on prices. To exacerbate matters, the global economic downturn led to a demand pullback, ballooning inventories and further depressed prices. Today, prices are so low—barely above $4....

The Deepwater Horizon

Posted by: Fisher Investments Research Staff on 04/30/2010

Last week, an explosion rocked the Deepwater Horizon, an oil rig operating in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition to sinking the rig itself, the tragic blast likely killed 11 still-missing workers and critically injured 7 others—a painful reminder of the mortal risks those in the oil industry are exposed daily to bring us products often taken for granted.

 
The incident’s potential environmental toll is also evident as workers tirelessly attempt to contain the resulting oil spill. But those pointing to the Deepwater Horizon as evidence offshore drilling should be banned should also consider the very real challenges it was created to overcome.
 
Oil literally fuels the global economy. Without readily available, relativ...
 


Fisher Investments Weekly Commentary

September 2010
Emitting More Creative Destruction
August 2010
A Market Supplied Well
A New Fad
July 2010
Math Problems
China’s #1…Or Are They?
US Gasoline Refinery Capacity Drops for First Time Since 2003
June 2010
Oil Price Volatility Masks Steadily Improving Fundamentals
May 2010
Don't Overlook OECD Oil Demand
The Question of Chinese Oil Demand
America's Natural Gas Boom
April 2010
The Deepwater Horizon