Fisher Investments Weekly Commentary

For the last decade, the global warming debate has swirled around the world from houses of government to houses of individuals. Carbon dioxide emissions are frequently at the center of discussion. But whatever your point of view on the subject, data released from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) speaks to long-term private sector changes which have already dramatically impacted the emission of CO2.

Oil prices slightly declined on Wednesday after the Energy Information Administration reported total fuel stockpiles increased over 5 million barrels to 1.13 billion barrels (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve). Some analysts were surprised at the increase given the time of year—supplies at this juncture typically decline. The biggest contributors to the increase in total stockpiles were distillates, propane, and...

Good regulation makes sense and is necessary to ensure a level playing field and safety. The Energy industry certainly isn’t exempted from this. Lately, regulatory backlashes at Energy producers have been increasing in popularity—with bans and moratoriums being the new fad. There’s the widely discussed Gulf deepwater ban imposed by the Department of the Interior. And now, fears of drilling fluids leaking and contaminating the water supply have led to a proposed New York state shale well drilling moratorium

Discussions of alternative energy sources are easy to come by these days. The idea sounds nice—finding cleaner sources of energy to provide limitless power for our economy would be quite a boon—if the economics made these sources viable.

According to the International Energy Administration, Chinese consumption of all energy sources (nuclear, oil, gas, wind, and solar, etc.) on an oil-adjusted basis surpassed the US in 2009. However, China disagrees. China released a report following the IEA’s announcement stating its energy consumption was approximately 1% below the US. Interestingly, the Chinese didn’t quibble with the IEA’s calculation of US ...

According to the Energy Information Administration, US gasoline refinery capacity fell in 2010 for the first time since 2003, principally driven by the closure of two large refineries in Delaware and New Jersey. While the closures were partially mitigated by expansion at a Louisiana refinery, historically refineries have struggled to meet demand. As the report indicates, past capacity utilization at US refineries has averaged 92%, indicating there hasn’t been much spare capacity previously&mdash...

Over the next 20 years, the world is going to need a lot more oil—about 20 million more barrels a day by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. But almost all of that demand growth is expected to be fueled by Emerging Markets. In fact, most forecasters believe developed-country oil consumption will actually decline over the next two decades. Most forecasts for a secular decline in OECD—an organization of developed economies—oil demand assume significant gains in energy efficiency, based on lessons learned from the energy crises of the 1970s. Indeed, followin...

This week, China reported monthly net crude imports topped 5 million barrels per day (mb/d) for the first time ever in April, rising 1.25 mb/d (33%) year-over-year. And based on the official refinery throughput statistics, apparent demand in the first three months of 2010 is up 1.30 mb/d (19%) over 2009.

The spectacular rate of apparent demand growth ostensibly suggests estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the US Department of Energy (DOE) and OPEC may be too conservative–on average, the three organizations expect Chinese oil consumption to increase...

For many years, US natural gas production declined steadily as the country’s conventional resources were depleted. However, several years ago, producers developed hydraulic fracturing and lateral drilling technology, which enabled them to cost-effectively access unconventional resources—such as natural gas shale—which previously were too technically challenging to economically extract. Gas production from resources such as the Barnett, Haynesville, Fayetteville, and Marcellus Shales surged, and supplies rose much more rapidly than consumption, putting significant downwar...